The main averages had been all up for the vacation shortened buying and selling week, with the S&P 500 closing at a brand new all-time excessive on Friday, beating its final report set in January 2022.
The week’s largest winner, nonetheless, was the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which gained greater than 2%. The Magnificent Seven (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) led the approach, with Nvidia leaping 8.74% for the week, and Apple up 3.03% following a giant improve by Bank of America.
After two consecutive successful weeks, all three averages are in now in the black for 2024.
Within the portfolio, we heard from Morgan Stanley, which regardless of producing better-than-expected outcomes got here underneath strain as administration struck a cautious tone. The financial institution’s wealth administration enterprise just isn’t fairly matching purchase facet expectations, even because it beat the promote facet consensus estimate.
On the macroeconomic entrance, a hotter-than-expected (*4*) quantity on Wednesday put strain on shares as buyers had been pressured to rethink estimates on what number of fee cuts the Federal Reserve may do this yr.
We are at a bizarre second in phrases of the information. On the one hand, we do not need to see numbers so sturdy that it takes the want for fee cuts off the desk. On the different, sturdy information speaks to financial resiliency, which is in flip a fantastic backdrop for enterprise operations. As a end result, the buyers are on the lookout for information that’s sturdy sufficient to help gross sales and earnings progress whereas holding unemployment low (good for enterprise fundamentals). But additionally we would like information that exhibits continued disinflation that enables the Fed room to chop charges (a optimistic for fairness valuations). Fortunately, we’ll get helpful info in the coming weeks as earnings season ramps up and up to date inflation information is launched.
Housing inflation is proving a more durable nut to crack. This week, we discovered that although housing starts and constructing permits had been stronger than anticipated, single-family housing begins had been down 8.6% month-to-month in December. This is not nice. We actually need to see extra provide come into the market to supply some aid on shelter prices. Existing house gross sales got here in decrease than anticipated, falling 1% month-to-month and 6.2% versus the year-ago interval to the lowest degree since 1995. The mixture of a scarcity of provide and excessive charges is inflicting many to easily keep in their houses. Again, this is not supreme because it helps greater house costs — nice if you happen to personal, not so good if you happen to’re trying to purchase.
Also not nice in case you are the Fed attempting to interrupt inflation’s again, since shelter prices characterize a significant supply of upper costs.
Looking to subsequent week, we’ll get a a number of key financial updates and a ramp up of earnings releases. Within the portfolio we’ll hear from Procter & Gamble on Tuesday earlier than the opening bell.
1. Personal spending. The large macroeconomic watch merchandise is December private spending and earnings report on Friday. With the market nonetheless buying and selling largely on interest-rate expectations and far debate round future cuts, this report is vital because it incorporates the important core PCE worth index, the Fed’s most popular measure of inflation. As of Friday, the expectation (per FactSet) is for a 2.9% annual advance, which might characterize a pleasant deceleration from the 3.2% fee in November and characterize the first time we have had a 2 deal with for the core index since March 2021. We’re finally aiming for the Fed’s goal fee of two%, so the nearer that core quantity will get, the much less strain to carry charges greater for longer. Of course, we additionally do not need a studying so weak as to spark fears that we’re headed for a tough touchdown. We need that Goldilocks quantity (once more).
2. Gross home product. Sure it is backward wanting, however the first studying of the fourth quarter 2023 GDP index on Thursday will present some perception into how the U.S. financial system is holding up at the highest degree and whether or not the Fed funds fee is an applicable degree or a bit too tight.
3. Housing information. We’ll additionally get a have a look at the housing market with the December new house gross sales report out on Thursday and December pending house gross sales out on Friday. As has been the case, we’re on the lookout for any indication of extra provide and a discount in listing costs as shelter stays a key thorn in the Fed’s facet in the case of sticky areas of inflation.
4. Earnings: Procter & Gamble’s quarterly launch on Tuesday will present how natural gross sales are wanting as administration works to take full benefit of its pricing energy with out inflicting an excessive amount of of a unfavourable impression on volumes. Possibly working to our benefit is that whereas the natural progress estimate at the second is 4.4% (in keeping with FactSet), analysts at Citigroup highlighted this week that their checks point out that the purchase facet — the expectations that actually matter in phrases of the stock’s response to the print — could also be extra in the 3% to 4% vary. In different phrases, expectations seem tempered and that is all the time a optimistic heading into an earnings launch. Weakness in China may also be a watch merchandise, alongside with the impression of overseas change (each in the reported quarter and expectations for the yr). Forex was a headwind in the earlier quarter. The different key focus is steerage. At the final name with buyers, administration was pressured to cut back the full-year gross sales outlook. They did reiterate the earnings forecast, however cautioned it might be on the decrease finish of the vary.
Monday, January 22
- Before the bell: Bank of Hawaii (BOH)
- After the bell: United Airlines (UAL), Logitech International S.A. (LOGI), AGNC Investment (AGNC), Agilysys Inc (AGYS), Brown & Brown (BRO), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), CrossFirst Bankshares (CFB), Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC), Enterprise Financial Services (EFSC), Independent Bank Group (IBTX), Home Bancorp (HBCP), RBB Bancorp (RBB), SensibleFinancial (SMBK), TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)
Tuesday, January 23
- Before the bell: Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), Verizon Communications (VZ), 3M Company (MMM), General Electric Co. (GE), RTX Corporation (RTX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Halliburton Company (HAL), Lockheed Martin (LMT), D.R. Horton (DHI), PACCAR (PCAR), Ericsson (ERIC), Community Bank System (CBU), GATX Corporation (GATX), MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Webster Financial (WBS), Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB), Invesco PLC (IVZ), Peoples Bancorp Inc (PEBO), Sandy Spring Bancorp (SASR)
- After the bell: Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Baker Hughes (BKR), Stride (LRN), Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Business First Bancshares (BFST), Covenant Logistics Group, Inc (CVLG), Hanmi Financial (HAFC), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), Premier Financial (PFC), QCR Holdings (QCRH), Renasant Corporation (RNST), Triumph Financial (TFIN), Trustmark (TRMK), Veritex Holdings (VBTX), WesBanco (WSBC)
Wednesday, January 24
- Before the bell: AT&T (T), ASML Holding (ASML), Progressive (PGR), Abbott (ABT), Amphenol (APH), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), Elevance Health (ELV), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), SAP SE (SAP), Textron (TXT), New Oriental Education and Technology Group (EDU), BOK Financial (BOKF), First BanCorp (FBP), First Community (FCCO), General Dynamics (GD), Monro (MNRO), OFG Bancorp (OFG), Prosperity Bancshares (PB), Simmons First National (SFNC), TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL), United Community Banks (UCBI), Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY), Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN), HBT Financial (HBT), Teledyne Technologies (TDY)
- After the bell: Tesla (TSLA), International Business Machines (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS), Lam Research (LRCX), United Rentals (URI), W.R. Berkley Corp (WRB), Crown Castle International (CCI), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Seagate Technology plc (STX), CACI International, Inc (CACI), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), Ameriprise Financial Inc (AMP), Concentrix Corporation (CNXC), First Bank (FRBA), Liberty Energy (LBRT), ResMed (RMD), Pathward Financial (CASH), Columbia Banking System (COLB), CSX (CSX), NovaGold Resources (NG), RLI (RLI), Ethan Allen Interiors (ETD), Hexcel (HXL), Raymond James Financial (RJF)
Thursday, January 25
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Durable Goods Orders
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Gross Domestic Price Index
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims
- 10:00 a.m. ET: New Home Sales
- Before the bell: American Airlines Group (AAL), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), Valero Energy (VLO), Blackstone (BX), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Nextera Energy Partners LP (NEP), Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW), Union Pacific (UNP), Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT), Mobileye Global (MBLY), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Comcast (CMCSA), Nokia (NOK), TAL Education Group (TAL), West Bancorporation (WTBA), Murphy Oil (MUR), McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
- After the bell: Intel (INTC), Visa Inc (V), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Capital One Financial (COF), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), AppFolio (APPF), Western Digital (WDC), FICO (FICO), CVRx (CVRX), Olin Corporation (OLN)
Friday, January 26
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Spending & Income
- 10:00 a.m. ET: Pending Home Sales
- Before the bell: American Express Co. (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH), Autoliv (ALV), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA), BankUnited (BKU), Badger Meter (BMI), Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM), First Hawaiian, Inc (FHB), Gentex (GNTX)
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