The British pound just had its worst month for a year — and strategists expect a further fall

LONDON — The British pound suffered its worst month towards the U.S. greenback for a year in September, and strategists present little optimism for the remainder of the year, as progress expectations weaken as soon as once more.

Sterling fell 3.75% towards the dollar by way of the month, logging a decline not seen because the finish of final summer season. At that point, the U.Okay. foreign money was rocked first by political and economic uncertainty, then by the short-lived “mini-budget” introduced by former Prime Minister Liz Truss, which pushed the sterling to a record low.

The pound additionally slid 1.26% towards the euro final month, notching its weakest efficiency since December 2022.

Exchange charges have been impacted over the previous two years by rate of interest expectations, with increased charges usually making a foreign money extra engaging for overseas funding.

Market expectations for peak U.Okay. rates of interest rose as excessive as 6.5% over the summer season, because the nation battled sticky inflation that was holding at eye-watering ranges, whereas client costs started to chill in different developed economies.

The Bank of England paused its run of 14 consecutive charge hikes in September, preserving its key charge at 5.25% — a degree that economists and market watchers have been quick to suggest seemingly represented its peak.

This “re-evaluation of expectations” of the height charge and the profile of short-term UK rates of interest pushed the pound decrease towards the U.S. greenback, Jane Foley, chief FX strategist at Rabobank, instructed CNBC.

There is likewise an expectation that the European Central Bank is completed with charge hikes, she famous. But whereas the euro charge versus the pound “has retreated from the highs of the vary which have dominated since late spring, the foreign money pair stays comparatively elevated reflecting the current construct up of recessionary dangers going through the U.Okay. economic system,” Foley stated.

“The Bank of England is, amongst the G10 central banks, in all probability within the hardest place,” Jim McCormick, macro strategist at Citi, instructed CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“They have to steadiness an more and more weaker progress outlook with very sticky excessive inflation. I feel a part of sterling’s weak point is much less pricing for Bank of England going ahead, I feel a part of it’s this recognition of low progress and excessive inflation, and I do expect sterling to weaken further from right here.”

In spite of financial tightening by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economic system is forecast to develop between 1.5% and 1.9% this year.

Even as its greatest economic system Germany falls into a recession, the ECB expects 0.7% progress within the euro zone this year.

That compares with 0.5% progress forecast by the Bank of England for the U.Okay., with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicting even decrease growth, close to 0.3%. The picture is brighter than it was a year in the past, however the prospect of a mild recession stays on the playing cards.