Coal free by 2070? India’s push toward renewables won’t stop coal reliance for the next two decades

There’s little doubt that India has made progress in its transition to renewable energy.

The nation’s leaders have been optimistic about its path to net zero, making daring claims that fifty% of its energy technology will come from renewables by 2030, and 100% by 2070.

However, coal manufacturing continues to soar and reliance on the fossil gas won’t finish any time quickly as India struggles to search out different methods to chill houses down and preserve the lights on.  

“India won’t be able to outlive utterly with out coal and there’s no various for India in the coming 10 to twenty years,” stated Anil Kumar Jha, former chairman and managing director of Coal India — the world’s largest coal producer.

“If you might be hungry and haven’t got cake to eat, will you eat bread or die hungry? That is presently what India is doing,” Jha advised CNBC. “We haven’t got a substitute for generate that quantity of electrical energy, and should rely on coal.” 

Fossil fuels, primarily coal, proceed to make up 75% of India’s energy provide, making it “the solely gas that India has in relative abundance,” stated Neshwin Rodrigues, electrical energy coverage analyst at Ember, a world power assume tank.

Effects from local weather change have triggered more than 700 heat waves in India over the previous 5 decades, driving up electrical energy demand as extra households buy air conditioners. 

“India is presently witnessing a fast surge in electrical energy demand, pushed by the electrification of quite a few households, the burgeoning economic system, and the rising adoption of electrical automobiles, infrastructure improvement, and cooling techniques,” stated Sooraj Narayan, Wood Mackenzie’s senior analysis analyst of energy and renewables in Asia Pacific. 

“This heightened energy demand necessitates a dependable, cost-effective, and constant energy technology supply, which coal at the moment fulfills,” he highlighted. 

Data from the International Energy Agency confirmed that electrical energy consumption in India from air conditioners elevated by 21% between 2019 and 2022.

Nearly 10% of the nation’s electrical energy demand comes from house cooling and it will improve ninefold by 2050, the IEA said.

Simultaneously, India’s coal consumption has quickly elevated. 

The nation’s coal manufacturing rose to 893 million tons in 2022 to 2023, a 14% progress from 778 million tons in 2021 to 2022, in response to knowledge from the Ministry of Coal.

Jha estimated coal manufacturing may attain 1,335 million tons in 2031 to 2032. 

This raises the query about whether or not India will be capable to attain its 2030 target of reaching 50% of its power necessities from non-fossil gas sources. As of now, power analysts do not assume it is achievable. 

“Coal stays a dependable fallback choice for India to make sure constant and reliable energy technology, particularly because it strives to satisfy the calls for of a quickly rising inhabitants and economic system,” Narayan identified. 

This might be the norm for India till after 2030 — when coal demand is anticipated to peak, in response to Sumant Sinha, founding father of Indian renewable power agency ReNew Power. 

“What we can not afford as a rustic is basically to shortchange our progress on account of a scarcity of energy capabilities. Whether we prefer it or not, coal will proceed to have a job to play in India,” Sinha advised CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on final week. 

Despite with the ability to produce low-cost wind and photo voltaic power, only 22% of India’s power generation is met by renewables.

All the analysts who spoke to CNBC agreed the nation’s photo voltaic, wind and hydro power capabilities are nonetheless unreliable as they’re depending on climate circumstances and the local weather.

“Renewable sources like photo voltaic and wind are inherently variable, counting on pure components corresponding to daylight, wind and water availability. This variability makes them much less reliable for assembly the nation’s burgeoning energy demand,” Wood Mackenzie’s Narayan stated. 

The South Asian nation at the moment has round 180 gigawatts of put in renewable power, and hydropower makes up half of that blend. However, extra superior infrastructure is required to make sure it serves as a dependable various to coal in the future.

India skilled the driest August in additional than a century when it received 36% less rainfall. Coal reliance that month grew by 13% in comparison with the 12 months earlier than.

“While India seeks to leverage hydropower to steadiness its grid, this supply of renewable power just isn’t with out its complexities,” Narayan stated, explaining that initiatives are sometimes delayed. 

“The building of dams and run-of-river initiatives for hydropower typically encounters extended delays, intensive gestation durations, and is contingent on variable rainfall patterns.”

Solar and wind power face the identical hurdles as underdeveloped energy grids curtail progress in the sector. 

“India’s current grid infrastructure just isn’t totally outfitted to deal with the integration of variable renewable power sources like photo voltaic and wind,” in response to Narayan. 

India at the moment has round 180 gigawatts of put in renewable power and goals to achieve 500 gigawatts by 2030, in response to government agency Invest India.

“Grid-scale battery storage is expensive, with provide chain disruptions additional driving up costs as a consequence of occasions like the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. These complexities render it difficult to rely solely on renewables for constant and reliable energy technology,” Narayan stated.

Another problem is that renewables are a frontloaded funding the place “all of your investments occur on the day of set up. You pay for all the things upfront,” stated Rodrigues from Ember.

“The downside with that’s that you just require a whole lot of financing capability, and there’s restricted financing capability in India,” he added, warning that India’s net-zero objectives can’t be met with out international investments.

“Going ahead, we have to discover methods to first part down coal, then we are able to speak about utterly phasing it out.”

— CNBC’s Naman Tandon contributed to this report.