Big M&A and Bob Iger's future: 13 media executives make their anonymous 2024 predictions

It’s essentially the most fantastic time of the yr! It’s the third annual anonymous media and leisure government predictions listing!

In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, I requested 12 previous and present executives on the world’s greatest media and leisure firms for one industry-shaking prediction for 2024. And then I requested yet another as a result of that is the vacation season, and I used to be feeling beneficiant. A baker’s dozen! Actually, I requested a number of extra, however some overlapped.

Quite a number of of final yr’s predictions were accurate. Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger did extend his contract. Christine McCarthy stepped down as Disney’s chief monetary officer. Paramount Global hasn’t offered, however controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is now in talks to sell National Amusements. Google’s YouTube acquired the National Football League’s “Sunday Ticket” package.

Some weren’t nearly as good. The media {industry} did not bounce again from recession in addition to one government hoped. Netflix did not merge with one other firm. Apple did not ban TikTookay from its app retailer.

Alas, hope strings everlasting with a brand new yr.

Executive 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger, when Discovery mixed with WarnerMedia. That deadline is vital for Reverse Morris Trust tax reasons. Without entering into the boring particulars, the vital half is Warner Bros. Discovery can do one other important deal two years after the shut of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

One government focused NBCUniversal because the almost certainly acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This government predicted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal in order that the brand new firm would commerce individually. But, Comcast (and Roberts) would preserve a controlling stake of the possession of the brand new entity.

A second government prompt a extra expansive state of affairs. Comcast will preserve its theme parks enterprise however promote the remainder of the corporate in trade for WBD widespread shares.  Comcast will get a premium for the rest of NBCUniversal in trade for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav runs the mixed firm, with NBCUniversal movie chief Donna Langley staying on to run an expanded studio.

Executive 2: Bob Iger will, once more, prolong his contract as Disney CEO

Earlier this yr, Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract by 2026. Iger has said he actually plans to walk away from Disney endlessly when his contract is completed. Iger has prolonged his contract as CEO to keep away from retirement on 5 completely different events. Of course, when Iger left on the finish of 2022, he said the same thing.

This government predicted “idiot me 5 instances, disgrace on me.” Disney has many strategic issues that do not have straightforward solutions, equivalent to determining how ESPN’s enterprise suits in a direct-to-consumer world and find out how to wind down its legacy TV cable networks. Those issues demand a pacesetter with a gentle hand who understands the {industry}. Is there a greater chief of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has determined, over and over once more, that there’s not. Why would this time be any completely different?

Executive 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their marketing campaign to hitch the Disney board

One factor which will stop Iger from extending his contract is that if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Last week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney Chief Financial Officer Rasulo criticized Disney’s failed succession planning as a part of a press release saying their intentions to run for Disney’s board of administrators when nominees are chosen subsequent yr.

“In our view, Disney’s board has failed to satisfy its important tasks – overseeing the event of an efficient technique, planning for orderly succession, aligning government pay with efficiency, and making certain accountability for operational execution,” Peltz mentioned within the assertion.

This government predicted Peltz and Rasulo will win their marketing campaign and each be a part of the board. A second particular person guessed solely Rasulo will get a spot — maybe through a settlement earlier than a vote.

Executive 4: Iger will title Dana Walden his successor as Disney CEO

If Iger does depart, he and the Disney board might want to title a successor. I reported in September that Iger plans to call a successor in early 2025 and give that particular person about 20 months to prepare for the role. If so, an announcement might are available late 2024. This government predicted will probably be Co-chairman of Disney Entertainment Dana Walden who will get the nod. Iger will once more transfer to a boss function when Walden takes over as CEO, simply as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.

A second particular person threw out a distinct title to key a watch on: Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Electronic Arts. This could seem out of left area, however here is some inside baseball for you — the identical government to say Wilson appropriately predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. Then final yr, the particular person mentioned Chris Licht would not final the yr as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO. Three for 3! So, possibly listen.

Executive 5: Disney will purchase Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will place himself as a number one inside candidate to take over for Iger

One final Disney succession prediction! This particular person predicted Disney would purchase the privately held Candle Media to amass Moonbug Entertainment, the proprietor of CoComelon. Disney would then try and promote the rest of Candle Media’s belongings at firesale costs, the chief predicted.

Candle Media is co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This particular person’s guess is Mayer will return to Disney in a senior working function to place himself as Iger’s high successor candidate whereas Staggs would depart the corporate.

Executive 6: NBA rights will go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple

One of essentially the most intently watched media tales of 2024 shall be what the National Basketball Association decides to do with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA ideally wants three media companions with completely different packages of video games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Both wish to keep carriage relationships with the NBA, although each firms have additionally harassed they are going to be monetary disciplined. The league can also be in search of a strong streaming possibility. This is the place Apple would slot in. (For what it is value, a second government mentioned he did not suppose Apple would even make a bid for NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal’s Peacock may find yourself with them.)

Executive 7: The College Football Playoff will not get the rights payment enhance it desires as ESPN would be the solely important bidder

Other than the NBA, the CFP would be the subsequent most vital rights deal to be renewed subsequent yr. The CFP’s present 12-year take care of ESPN expires after the 2025 playoff.

At that point, the faculty soccer playoffs will develop from 4 groups to 12. That could sound engaging as a brand new dwell sports activities behemoth, however this government guesses that potential bidders Amazon and Apple will balk on the worth CFP desires for the video games. ESPN is determined for dwell rights because it prepares a direct-to-consumer service and will renew the bundle, this government predicts.

Executive 8: Local broadcast stations take most native NBA, NHL and MLB sports activities rights away from regional sports activities networks

Sticking with the sports activities theme, the regional sports activities community enterprise may or may not be collapsing. Broadcast stations teams have been in talks with the NBA, NHL and MLB for a lot of the yr about selecting up native video games if sure RSNs fail.

Poaching groups from Diamond Sports Group, which filed for chapter earlier this yr and carries the video games of greater than 40 skilled sports activities groups, has been the first goal to this point for firms equivalent to EW Scripps and Gray Television. Scripps now carries video games from the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes. Gray reached a deal to broadcast the NBA’s Phoenix Suns earlier this yr.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon in talks to put money into Diamond Sports Group to maintain the corporate afloat whereas probably utilizing Prime Video as a touchdown house for streaming rights.

This government mentioned he believes the printed station teams will emerge as the first winner of rights as leagues will push for the expanded attain of broadcast TV whereas cable subscribers dwindle.

Executive 9: Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix and Disney will supply the primary important streaming bundle

Media pundits on CNBC love to say that subscription streaming will finally be bundled in one thing that form of appears like (and is priced like) conventional cable TV.

But years into the streaming wars, this hasn’t occurred. No one has emerged because the dominant aggregator. No bundle of many providers exists. It’s sophisticated to get media companies on board to conform to what one thing like that will appear to be.

This government mentioned 2024 would be the yr firms lastly get critical about bundling, predicting Disney would conform to bundle its trio of streaming providers (Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+) with Max and Netflix to supply a choice of streaming providers — at a reduction — that rivals cable TV.

A second government famous that such a reduction will most likely have to be championed by an anchor distributor. This government’s guess is that will probably be Amazon. He additionally predicted Paramount Global‘s Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max shall be part of the primary streaming bundle that Amazon affords.

Executive 10: RedBird Capital will purchase Paramount Global and title Jeff Zucker CEO

Private fairness agency RedBird Capital, based by Gerry Cardinale, has been stockpiling government expertise, together with two former NBCUniversal heads in Jeff Zucker and Jeff Shell, who begins work on the personal fairness agency in early 2024.

This government made the daring name that RedBird will not simply purchase Shari Redstone’s National Amusements however all of Paramount Global, backed by a consortium of outdoor funding, together with cash from David Ellison and BDT Capital, the personal fairness agency run by Michael Dell and Byron Trott that backed Redstone earlier this yr.

Zucker might then run Paramount Global and do the soiled work of deciding what a part of the corporate he desires to run and what to promote. Still, this government mentioned Zucker would preserve a lot of the belongings and try and show the corporate was undervalued as a publicly traded entity.

Executive 11: CNN will let go of one in every of its high anchors because it redirects cash to digital

No matter how nice CNN makes its programming, the cable information large most likely cannot defeat the larger secular forces of declining cable subscribers. That will imply much less cash coming within the door for brand spanking new CEO Mark Thompson, who plans on investing more in digital.

This government predicted CNN will not be capable of up its digital spending with out chopping again on a declining linear TV enterprise — and that may imply letting go of not less than one in every of its big-name anchors to save lots of money.

The transfer will usher in a brand new period at CNN, the place star anchors are not the main target of the corporate.

Executive 12: Linda Yaccarino will not final the yr as CEO of X

Former NBCUniversal promoting chief Linda Yaccarino joined X as its new CEO in 2023, however the match on the firm appears to make much less and much less sense by the day as advertisers flee.

Yaccarino suffered by an awkward interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin earlier this yr when Boorstin requested her if she was a CEO “in title solely” and was solely on the firm to do proprietor Elon Musk’s bidding.

This government predicted Yaccarino would both lose endurance or discover her job more and more pointless and depart the corporate in 2024.

Executive 13: No film will high $1 billion on the field workplace all yr

For the primary time in additional than 15 years, not counting 2020’s pandemic shutdown, no film will high $1 billion on the field workplace, this government predicted. Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” has one of the best probability, this particular person mentioned. But predicting solely “Despicable Me 4” would high $1 billion is not as daring, and you solely dwell as soon as … anonymously.

Happy holidays!

Disclosure: Comcast is the mother or father firm of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC.

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